CONGRESS, POLLS & POLITICS
An IM exchange between Marc Ambinder, Politics Editor &
Amy Walter, Editor of Hotline
Ambinder: Amy!
Walter: Hello
Ambinder: Welcome to the world of Instant Messaging. All this 100 Days stuff to me is about one question: Why is Obama so popular? Why is he the ONLY popular person/institution in government? Banks, Wall Street, Congress (generally), judges...Obama hovers over them.
Walter: He's not the only one who's popular. Hillary Clinton's up at 52%. Even Congressional Dems...well, they're not as popular, but they are liked more than disliked. But I get where you're going here.
Ambinder: Are Congressional Dems liked because Republicans are still falling? Or because they're basking in Obama's reflected glory?
Walter: First, let's look at Obama
Ambinder: Ok
Walter: His style is a big part of it. I think he is successful in large part because he's such a departure from Bush
Ambinder: When you say "style," you mean...
Walter: He's not picking fights. He's not referring to himself as the "decider."
Dems love him, GOPers dislike him, but indies are very positive on him. Because of his style. Indies liked Clinton (at times) because of his policies. They hated his style.
Dems love him, GOPers dislike him, but indies are very positive on him. Because of his style. Indies liked Clinton (at times) because of his policies. They hated his style.
Ambinder: Very interesting dichotomy there.
Walter: In the end, Americans like action. And this is a guy who looks like he's DOING something. Even if we don't see any "real" results (like a dip in unemployment or increase in manufacturing)
Ambinder: The government IS activist and it APPEARS to be activist. Billions going out the door. Stimulus money, tax cuts. That's what Rahm reminds the WH political team all the time.
I also think that Obama has AVOIDED battles that could make him slightly less popular. He won't do the gun debate. He's resisted getting dragged into any of the culture war stuff Republicans try to start up
I also think that Obama has AVOIDED battles that could make him slightly less popular. He won't do the gun debate. He's resisted getting dragged into any of the culture war stuff Republicans try to start up
Walter: Our latest Diageo/Hotline poll showed that voters are about evenly divided on the issue of more spending versus less. Also interesting was the new P.O.S. poll that showed voters were more concerned about deficit and gov't spending than taxes
Ambinder: All true, but I was referring to the fact that he's giving stuff to people. People like getting stuff. He hasn't really asked them to give up anything. Yet.
Walter: You're right on the sacrifice part. We can get a better economy without having to give anything up. But a year from now, if things are still going south on the economy, voters are likely to move off him too.
Ambinder: He's not calling for that much sacrifice (although he argues that people are already sacrificing).
Walter: Reagan dropped 20 points in job approval from his first 100 days to Jan. '82 (his first year).
Ambinder: That's true.
Walter: That was all about the economy.
Ambinder: When Reagan had to deal with the effects of the recession, and when unemployment went through the roof.
Arguably, unemployment has broken thru the roof now...So when do voters start blaming Obama for the economy?
Arguably, unemployment has broken thru the roof now...So when do voters start blaming Obama for the economy?
Walter: Next year they start paying attention. The mid-term report card is due in November '10.
Ambinder: So he'd better get the numbers headed in a different direction this year. The WH is worried about a double dip recession....And the American people are tough graders.
Walter: The question is, Will they be looking for things not getting worse, or do they need to get appreciably better? And will they see Congress as being part of a solution or part of the problem?
They are tough graders - just ask Reagan or Clinton. But they are also very fickle. Clinton was at 58% in Jan. '94 -- by Nov. he'd fallen to the 40s.
They are tough graders - just ask Reagan or Clinton. But they are also very fickle. Clinton was at 58% in Jan. '94 -- by Nov. he'd fallen to the 40s.
Ambinder: Part of this assumes that they're grading only Obama, but they're not. They're also grading him against his opposition. Which right now is a carnival, not a party.
Walter: haha. But I don't know about that. I think in a mid-term it's really just a referendum on the guy in the WH. If Obama's doing "ok," then an anti-Obama, anti-Dem message isn't going to get them many seats. Sure, Repubs can pick up a few seats just on turn-out differences. A few more R's turning out in one district will get them like 5 seats in the House.
Ambinder: From a substantive standpoint, then, does Obama need a major domestic accomplishment, like health care? Or can he coast on a recovering economy?
Walter: That's a great question, and it gets to the heart of the issue for voters.
Ambinder: That's why I asked you! I have no idea what the answer is!
Walter: They voted for "change" and that means they need to see something happen.
One thing I saw in focus groups last year was that voters across the ideological spectrum were united on one issue: That Obama would keep his word and not "go Washington"
One thing I saw in focus groups last year was that voters across the ideological spectrum were united on one issue: That Obama would keep his word and not "go Washington"
Ambinder: Has he?
Walter: They don't want any more tired excuses about partisan wrangling
Ambinder: He's managed to appear bipartisan without getting GOP votes
Walter: He has so far. But we haven't gotten to the tough part yet.
Ambinder: Yes, at some point, he'll NEED GOP votes. There ain't 60 DEM votes for cap-and-trade in the Senate... or for health care with a big public plan.
Walter: Bottom line: voters want to see something get done. Don't care how it happens. And if indies are going along with it - it's win-win for Obama
Ambinder: Let's talk about what Obama hasn't done right, where he's fumbled
Walter: OK.
Ambinder: In terms of mistakes/issues, I think they can be chalked up -- mostly -- to hubris and arrogance.
Walter: I can't say that he's been perfect. But when you're at 60+% in the polls, it's hard to say he's messed up.
Ambinder: And I think the WH over/undersells some things. Like no one has any idea what the new Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy really is
Walter: Yeah. If you talk to lobbyists they'll say shutting them out of the process has hurt him.
Ambinder: It's true
Walter: But no one outside the 202/301/703 area code cares about this stuff. And voters aren't really thinking about grading him yet
Ambinder: Let's end, maybe, with some predictions about the 2nd 100 days.
Walter: To me it's all about health care
Ambinder: Will the House and Senate craft similar enough health care bills? I think there's a good chance they will.
Walter: And can Congress really get something done before they leave for recess?
Ambinder: Do they move on his financial reforms, too?
Walter: Of course, we know that something big will happen between now and the summer. How he reacts to it will probably be a bigger issue than any of this other stuff. We all know one hurricane can change everything.
