Based on what we know so far, what strategic advice would you give to a Republican thinking about running in 2012? Assume a broad time horizon in your answer, as in: what should the candidates be doing in late 2009, 2010, etc.
Comments (2)What's most entertaining about all these comments from so called experts is that almost of all of them are predicated on Obama's failure, and even the one that thinks he'll have successes say's he'll have committed "excesses." Whatever they are.Furthermore none of them, none, address any of the Republican baggage. Global warming denial, anti choice, stem cell research, income inequality, immigration reform, religious extremism...need I go on. And neither do the address the retreat into a policy of mindless obstruction that borders on the clownish at times. They should remember the first rule of therapy. To cure a problem you have to recognize there is one. The GOP isn't remotely near that realisation. I don't understand recommending Tim Pawlenty cut taxes to fix a budget shortfall. You may agree or disagree about whether it would generate more revenues, but I'm pretty sure a balanced budget is required by law. |
monday 4/27Jeffrey Goldberg/
|
Copyright © 2008 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved.
The GOP is without leadership, but has many potential leaders. Republicans who want to succeed in becoming the GOP nominee should understand that this fight is wide open and, as is usually the case, there is no one who is next in line for the nomination. The broad leadership of the party is as undefined as it has been since at least 1993, but we were in a better position even then.
Republicans will rally around vision and ideas, but until the next election we will be more defined by congressional efforts to oppose President Obama. But a presidential candidacy cannot be defined by opposition and be successful. So future candidates need to begin putting forward their vision by taking advantage of the policy debates in Washington. For current governors and senators, this means making concrete proposals that lay out a vision for a smaller, more effective government. If successful, these ideas will attract attention and create buzz, as Republicans are desperate for someone to point a way forward. The country has not lurched left. An effective policy vision will rebuild the center-right constituency in this country. It will focus on tax reform, health care, entitlement reform, energy policy and national security. It will have to answer the question many voters have, "will I be better off with you in office and why?" This is the task that must be accomplished to be a successful candidate in the primary and general and this will be done by someone in 2012 or later.
For governors, there is an extra opportunity to put policies in place that take a different path than the Obama administration is going to take. For a party that currently lacks credibility as a governing party, crossing over this hurdle will be critical. Demonstrating competence will not get you the nomination, but it is a necessary ingredient in 2012.
Against this backdrop, Obama will occupy center stage. There is a silly debate in this country about whether Republicans should want Obama to succeed. It is not our job to roll over when he makes a proposal. We think his policy ideas will often be wrong, and we should say so when we think so. But our future nominees should do this from a position of strength, picking fights that need to be picked in areas where we can win over voters and grow our base.
A tactical effort might win you the nomination, but it will not lead to success in the general. In 2008 our primary candidates waged a largely tactical battle over geography and Republican constituency groups. This is part of the process, and people thinking about the White House ought to be spending time on planes so they can go meet some leaders, funders, activists and voters. If we hope to be taken seriously in 2012, we need to do what our candidates did not in 2008: have a compelling vision for the future of the United States.
Immediately embark on a Diners, Drive-ins and Dives Tour -- Take the next couple years to travel America and the world -- not as a highly staged, useless "listening tour" but as a way to understand what everyday people are talking about in communities throughout America -- with emphasis on the North East. And do this not just in America but in countries around the world. The U.S. will always be a world leader, and we need a Republican candidate who better understands and can speak to the frustrations, fears and hopes of other nations.
Put down Forbes, pick up Fast Company -- It's not enough for the next Republican Presidential candidate to have a Blackberry, a Facebook page and a Twitter site. Successful candidates must be immersed in the language and ideas of ingenuity and technology. Understanding what creative individuals are doing to change and enhance the marketplace will breed positive policy solutions that grab the attention and imagination of voters.
Learn Spanish -- If you need an explanation, you shouldn't run for office.
Be Approachable -- The next leader of the Republican Party must understand how to set the tone for a minority party that needs to appeal to independent voters who shun partisanship. The art of disagreeing without being disagreeable is lost on the current crop of Republican leaders.
In all likelihood, Obama will be coming into the 2012 elections with some victories. Some sort of significant healthcare plan will likely pass Congress. Even the most pessimistic mainstream economists predict that the economy will have recovered significantly by mid-2011. Obama will undoubtedly have excesses with cap-and-trade, card-check, and other legislation that he pushes, hopefully unsuccessfully. Any Republican looking to 2012 will have to offer a critique of Obama that resonates with the Republican base, but also have done something at the time to address the concerns of a broader swath of Americans. This will be especially true because the early primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina, protected by the new RNC rules, are open primaries in which Independents could play. Inevitably, there will be unhappy Independents who could form a significant part of any winning coalition. A pragmatic-conservative will resonate with Republicans' rage and Independents' concern and offer a real chance in a general election. This situation will significantly advantage sitting governors who will have to have done something to address the crises in their own states. They will be able to say, "I disagree with Obama, and I handled the problem in my own state by doing ..." They will have new solutions from outside Washington.
In addition, our candidates need to learn the real lesson of the Obama campaign: profound investment in grassroots. Obama's field program in 2007 and 2008 created a new activist base that volunteered and contributed at unprecedented levels. Republicans will need a comparable grassroots. Some of that energy will be delivered by the rage of Republicans, but too much Republican rage will prevent the necessary inroads into constituencies like married women, Hispanics, and young affluents who broke for Obama, and may have reasons to be concerned with Obama's excesses.
Run.
McGovern Dukakis Democrats could not win the White House for 20 years because they were not trusted to keep the country safe or to keep themselves from spending us all into oblivion. Now the Obama Administration is licking the same cold frozen metal bar again, hollowing out the morale of the CIA and, though the president tonight called again for an era of responsibility, he supports borrowing and spending of an irresponsible scale appropriate to debauched Roman emperors. Gallup says 82% of Americans are worried about Obama's deficit. At some point, the gap between the popularity of the President's policies and his personal popular popularity will tighten. That will not be a good day for Barack Obama and it might be Nov. 6, 2012.
It's impossible to forecast the political environment two years down the road at this point, when real decision on 2012 need to be made, but at this stage three things to think about:
Policy, People, Process.
Policy: The wreckage of the GOP idea factory in the aftermath of the Bush presidency will create a merit based incubator for new ideas -- regardless of origin -- in the context of upcoming national debates.
Potential candidates ought to be looking at the major debates ahead, and figure out how to offer innovative, idea packed alternatives on one or two of them. My advice, own or lead on a singular issue and develop a disciplined communications strategy that leverages the smartest new media strategies. The goal is to be at the epicenter of a hot issue, and to grow -- and sign up -- a following as a result of your position on it.
Example: Rick Perry and Tea Parties/Secession, Sanford and his bailout refusal.
For Governors, they should keep the 2012 political implications of key policy decisions and budget negotiations in the back of their mind. They should seek to proactively drive an agenda that plays to their respective strengths (no easy feat in a disastrous budget environment).
Example: Facing a budget hole, Pawlenty cuts taxes in his budget. Seeking greater efficiency, Huntsman innovates and goes to a four day government work week seeking efficiency.
People: There are a ton of good, smart, and generally unemployed GOP operatives on the market. Start to get to know them in the down times. Throw some bones and generate some loyalty, and focus on the next generation of rising stars from outside DC.
By year's end, you'll see a variety of political organizations, 501c4s and PACs pop up. Smart 2012ers should start to think about exposure to and cultivation of the best minds in money, message, and organization.
Example: Jindal travels the nation raising millions for his re-elect, meeting key donors and fundraisers along the way.
Process: 2012ers should start to think about how to allocate their time. Often overlooked, but very important! Time, political capital, and applications of resource in the key races of 2009 and 2010 are important planning considerations. Chits, while old fashioned, still matter, and still go in the bank.
Hopefuls should also pay attention to the internal deliberations that will occur around the nomination process debate, and invisibly try to influence them.
Finally, 2012ers should be focused on starting to build lists, and a robust online following. Boring, expensive, but CRITICAL. 2012 is likely to be a billion (yes I said it) dollar affair. How Republicans compete against an Obama juggernaut will require a complete re-think of how the modern presidential effort is organized and funded. Read: Understand and embrace the internet as an organizing tool, and do it NOW!
For non-elected officials (former Govs, businessmen) considering 2012, my advice is to go to Boston, check out what Mitt Romney has been doing and copy it exactly.